Definition (Aumann model of incomplete information with beliefs)

An Aumann model of incomplete information with beliefs (over a set of states of nature SS) consists of five elements (N,Y,(ℱi)i∈N,𝔰,𝐏)(N, Y, (\mathcal{F}_i)_{i \in N}, \mathfrak{s}, \mathbf{P})

  • the four elements from the Aumann model of incomplete information
    • NN is a finite set of players
    • YY is a finite set of elements called states of the world
    • ℱi\mathcal{F}_i is a partition of YY, for each i∈Ni \in N
    • 𝔰:Y→S\mathfrak{s}: Y \to S is a function associating each state of the world with a state of nature
  • additionally, 𝐏\mathbf{P} is a probability distribution over YY such that 𝐏(ω)>0\mathbf{P}(\omega) > 0 for each ω∈Y\omega \in Y

Theorem

Let (N,Y,(ℱi)i∈N,𝔰,𝐏)(N, Y, (\mathcal{F}_i)_{i \in N}, \mathfrak{s}, \mathbf{P}) be an Aumann model of incomplete information with beliefs. Then ∀ω∈Y\forall \omega \in Y, ∀i∈N\forall i \in N (players), ∀A⊆Y\forall A \subseteq Y (events), player ii knows event AA in state of the world ω\omega if and only if he attributes probability 11 to that event:

𝐏(A|Fi(ω))=1⟺Fi(ω)⊆A\mathbf{P}(A \vert F_i(\omega)) = 1 \iff F_i(\omega) \subseteq A

See also

References

  1. M. Maschler, E. Solan, and Shmuel Zamir, Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2013, pp. 323-324.
  2. https://cet.econ.northwestern.edu/dekel/pdf/hierarchies-beliefs-common-knowledge.pdf